Press Release: AZLP Candidate Barry Hess Disputes SurveyUSA/KPNX-TV POLL

Libertarian Gubernatorial Candidate Barry Hess today challenged the Methodology, Accuracy, and Results of SurveyUSA/KPNX-TV’s flawed poll. According to Mr. Hess, the survey is flawed in numerous ways that render the results meaningless.

The problems are:

1.       Limited population: The survey relies on a statistically insignificant population of only 472. This is outside the norm of statistical significance for populations for statewide questions and is too small to accurately reflect the opinion of the state.

2.       Biased Methodology: As part of the survey, additional questions were asked to determine the characteristics of the population to include 3 choices for party affiliation. Why 3 (Dem/Rep/Ind)? A correct and accurate question would have included 4! Dem/Rep/Libertarian/Ind. The Libertarian party is a certified political party in the state of AZ and the race in question, Governor, involves a candidate from that party. Yet, SurveyUSA doesn’t believe it is important enough to include. Do we even know if any Libertarians were included in the poll?

3.       When the actual response number results are examined, they do not add up:

a.       Mr. Hess is shown as receiving 15 votes overall, with a breakdown of 10 male and 4 female. 15 vs. 14? Was there another option offered? Other inconsistencies exist.

b.       The numbers for male votes for all candidates also do not add up. 106 + 118 + 10 + 3 = 237 not the reported 236. Age group 50-64, totals 135 vs. 134 reported.

Are these merely typos? Or systemic problems with the accuracy of the poll?

Additionally, others than Mr. Hess are questioning this poll. ColdHeartedTruth.com points out that the “numbers strain credulity” and “feel a little screwy”, and overall, it “makes the poll suspect.” (see here). HotAZItGets.com questions the “Mysterious Surge In Polling Numbers”: see here and “Pollster Plays Fast and Loose with Facts”: see here (Note: there is no known connection between CHT, Eli Blake, HotAZItGets.com and any campaign).

This poll conducted by SurveyUSA for KPNX-TV Phoenix (a Gannett property, Gannett is also the owner of the AZ Republic) has serious and numerous flaws that call into question the results and render the poll meaningless. Mr. Hess calls on KPNX, Gannett, and all other responsible organizations and individuals to do the same, and not report nor rely on this flawed poll as accurate or even as news.